The weather this week starts calmly, but we will soon experience changes with the arrival of a new DANA that will cause an increase in atmospheric instability, with storms that can be intense in some regions and rain in many parts of the peninsula. Temperatures will remain below average for these dates at the end of June. In some cities they will drop more than 10 degrees.
On the last Monday of June, stability will persist, it will be hot and there will be clear skies in much of Spain. Maximum temperatures will rise in many areas, reaching 36ºC and 39ºC in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys.
The Meteorological Agency (Aemet) predicts cloudy intervals with the possibility of isolated showers in the Cantabrian Sea, upper Ebro, northern Iberia, Valencian and Catalan coasts and the Balearic Islands, more likely in the eastern Cantabrian Sea and in Barcelona. Likewise, dry storms could develop in the west of the Plateau and interior of Galicia.
Maximum temperatures will increase in general, sharply in the northern half, although they will decrease somewhat in the Levant and southern Andalusia. During the day, temperatures will exceed 30ºC in large areas of the interior of the northern half of the peninsula and 36ºC and 39ºC will be recorded in the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys. At the same time, nighttime values will also increase and in fact it will dawn with values above 20 to 22ºC in much of Extremadura and Andalusia. In addition, winds from the east and north will predominate in almost the entire country, generally weak in the interior and more intense on the coasts.
A front will approach on Tuesday, causing increased atmospheric instability. In mountain areas of the northern half, evolution clouds will form that will give rise to stormy showers, without ruling it out in nearby areas. Temperatures will drop in Galicia and in the west of Extremadura and Andalusia and will rise in the center and east of the territory. In this way, the day will be hot in the center and east of the peninsula, with temperatures between 34 and 36ºC in large areas of the northeast, center and half of the south. Again, in the Guadalquivir valley it will be possible to reach 38 to 40ºC.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, the advance of this front will lead to cloudy skies and rain in the extreme north, with the possibility of scattered showers in large areas of the rest of the northern half. In addition, temperatures will drop there and they will do so very abruptly, a drop that can be described as extraordinary, since the drop will be more than 12ºC compared to the previous day in many areas. For example, if the forecast is true, Burgos could drop from 30ºC on Tuesday to 16ºC on Wednesday, and Logroño could drop from 36ºC on Tuesday to 20ºC. On the other hand, in the southern half there will be hardly any changes and Córdoba, for example, will once again exceed 38ºC.
As of Thursday, the uncertainty of the forecast grows a lot. In principle, the most likely thing is that the weather will tend to stabilize again, with rain only in the extreme north, without ruling out some downpours in other areas of the rest of the northern half of the peninsula. On the other hand, temperatures will tend to recover especially in the northern half, while they will not change much in the rest. For example, in large areas of the southern half, starting on Thursday and during the following days, it is possible that 34 to 36ºC will continue to be exceeded in large areas.